Applebee: Jim Dandy / Vanderbilt – Saratoga 7.27.24 (2024)

Happy Jim Dandy Day!

Preakness winner Seize the Grey, Derby runner-up Sierra Leone, and Florida Derby winner Fierceness make up the top tier of a compact, but very strong rendition of the Jim Dandy. If the winner today comes from that top group then they will be the main competitor to Dornach who took the lead in the three year old division with his Haskell romp last weekend. However, the three year old division remains pretty wide open given that we once again had different winners in each leg of the Triple Crown.

Trivia Question: Who was the last horse to win more than one leg of the Triple Crown?

Race 6 – The Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap – Grade I

Six Furlongs on the Dirt, Handicap For Three Year Olds and Upward

1. Nakatomi: Has been working at Keeneland since coming back from the UAE after finishing a distant third in the Golden Shaheen at Meydan back in March. Has hit the board in eight of nine starts at six panels, but has only a single win from those nine races. Has only won twice on a fast track and has yet to win a graded stakes race but with a ton of speed entered here he could get something out of this. Small slice.
2. Twisted Ride: Cross entered in De Francis Memorial Dash at Laurel on Sunday. Probably more likely to go there as he will be up against it with this field. Steady performer in the upper 80s Beyer – but that’s at least ten points below what is needed. Pass.
3. My Buddy B: Has been running against lesser at Mountaineer, Turfway, and Presque Isle and primarily on the poly track so far this year. Not sure those performances translate to competing here. A win here would be a real surprise. Looking elsewhere.
4. Baby Yoda: The magical mystery tour that is Baby Yoda’s career continues. He was last seen manhandling the True North field to win by six lengths for his first career graded stakes win at age six (102 Beyer). He loves Saratoga where he is four for six and recorded that 114 Beyer as a three year old. Appeared to be on the backside of this career running in optional claimers and then Boom! he exploded in the True North. If he can sit in behind the early speed again he is very dangerous. He is on a two race win streak and when Mott gets ‘em going right, they tend to stay going right. The Pick.
5. Subrogate: Smoked an optional claimer field last out at the Big A (106 Beyer) by six lengths for his third win in a row. Won over this track back in June and now picks up Irad in the irons. If he reproduces that last out effort – then look out. Lasix comes OFF. Dangerous.
6. Skelly: Speed of the speed who has been in the exacta in fourteen of fifteen starts at six furlongs and has won ten. Draws outside and should set the pace provided he breaks well. Has been running against weaker but is the logical favorite. He might just bury this field but let’s see him do it at the Spa against some very good ones. Hasn’t been above 4/5 in his last seven races – so he has won when he was supposed to and was beaten last out as the 2/5 favorite. Using.

Picks 4-6-5-1

Race 10 – The Jim Dandy – Grade II

One Mile and One Furlong on the Dirt for Three Year Olds

1. Sierra Leone: Disappointed as the favorite in the Belmont (99 Beyer) where he had clear run at the leaders at the quarter pole but lugged in again. Just missed in the Derby with a similar type of trip. Tons of talent here but he has gotten in his own way. Race flow suits him today with a lot of speed to run into. Has never missed the board in six career starts. He has to put it all together in one of these, doesn’t he? With this pace setup I think this is the day. The Pick.
2. Seize the Grey: Regressed in the Belmont off of his Preakness win. In the Preakness he had it his was way on the front end and took advantage (100 Beyer). Race flow today doesn’t suit as he faces a lot of competition up front. His Preakness might have been an aberration and two of his four wins were over off tracks. Not today.
3. Batten Down: Mott trainee has won two straight including a front running score in the Ohio Derby last month (93 Beyer) even though he was on the wrong lead throughout. Will need to move forward off that win but he is on the rise. He likes to be on the pace but will have a lot of company up front today. Could see a change in tactics today as he may tuck in behind Seize the Grey and press the pace. Hits the board.
4. Pony Express: Broke his maiden last month going two turns at Santa Anita for John Sadler (84 Beyer). Has been working great since that maiden win and Sadler sees fit to ship in for this. He will need a fifteen point Beyer boost to contend here. Has just three lifetime starts so he is eligible to move forward but he faces four graded stakes winners. West Coast speed at Saratoga has a pretty good record over the years. Lasix comes OFF. Know him early.
5. Gould’s Gold: Only has a maiden win on his resume, but he has hit the board in a couple of stakes races and last out in the Ohio Derby he was a game second to Batten Down (90 Beyer). Stalk and pounce type should be running through the wire. Bottom side of exotics.
6. Fierceness: Pletcher trainee has been up and down his whole career. His Florida Derby was the most eye catching performance of any three year old this year earning a 110 Beyer. But that was sandwiched by a flat Holy Bull and a Kentucky Derby where he was done after a mile and finished 15th at the favorite. Appears to need it his way … or else. All three career wins are on the front end and there is speed drawn to the inside of him today. Given that setup he will need to be sent to try and clear the field, sit outside the other speed, or take back. Not exactly appetizing options and given his history I can’t take him at a short price. In the mix underneath.

Picks 1-3-6-5

Trivia Answer: Justify in 2018 was the last horse to win more than one leg of the Triple Crown.

Peter Applebee

Peter resides in his hometown of Delmar, New York and has spent decades handicapping the races at Saratoga. He is a contributor to Horse Race Insider where he writes on a variety of racing topics and has appeared multiple times on the Matt Bernier podcast as a guest handicapper. Fun Fact: Peter and his wife held their wedding reception at the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame.